Can the Phillies Do it Again? 2009 National League East Preview

• Roger Fenimoore
• Tuesday, March 24, 2009

New York Mets:

The Mets are coming off of another year in which they completely collapsed. The main reason behind that collapse was their terrible bullpen production. In 2008 the Mets bullpen blew 29 saves. For those of you who aren’t big on stats, that a hell of a lot. That’s close to a fifth of all of their games in 2008. In almost a fifth of their games they played last year they were leading in the ninth inning, then went on to lose that lead.

So the obvious thing to do? Beef up the closing positions in your bullpen. That’s exactly what the Mets did, in a very big way. They went out and signed a closer coming off a year in which he set the major league record for saves. Francisco Rodriguez is that closer. He successfully saved 62 games last year for the Angels.

The Mets didn’t stop there though. They went out and signed former Mariner all-star closer, J.J. Putz. He is going to be in the set-up role for the Mets this year in front of Rodriguez. All of a sudden the Mets go from having no one to close out their games to having the best eighth inning pitcher setting up the game for the best ninth inning pitcher.

Quietly the Mets scored the second most runs in the national league last year. There are some reasons why that will be hard to do again. The first is that the Mets received performances from a few players last year that were beyond what anyone thought they would get. Last year aging first baseman Carlos Delgado put up unbelievable numbers. He hit 38 home runs and drove in 115 runs. For him to have that same kind of year in 2009 would be completely unexpected.

Fernando Tatis also produced much more than anyone thought possible. He hadn’t played in more than 100 games since 2002, and didn’t play at all in 2007. For someone to come out of nowhere and help produce was more than just unlikely. The Mets are going to look for that same kind of production this year in left from 23 year old  Daniel Murphy.  His rise to a starting spot in left field turns Tatis into a very good bench option in 2009.

David Wright, Carlos Beltran, and Jose Reyes only missed a total of five games last year as well. The Mets are going to desperately need that kind of durability this year as well to maintain any chance of becoming the team that New York fans want them to be. If they can play and produce consistently this year, the Mets will be just fine. Any team that has Reyes leading off for them is going to be good. Over the last three years he has become the premiere speed man in the major leagues, except like all other speedsters in the majors, Reyes can actually hit.

Carolos Beltran gets more comfortable every year and looks to finally be the same player he was in his last year playing for Houston., so expect great things. When I say great I mean top-five-offensive-weapons great. It’s a lot to expect, but I guarantee everyone in New York feels the same.

The Mets starting rotation looks a lot like it did last year, only with more experience and higher expectations. Johan Santana looks to build off his great year last year and win another Cy Young award in 2009. He won 16 games last year (with a normal bullpen working for him he would’ve won 20) and had an E.R.A. of around 2.50, not bad. What do you expect though, he’s Johan Santana. The National League needs to look out in 2009. He’s done with being scared about pitching on the big stage.  He’s loose and care free and just as good as ever.

Behind Santana in the Mets rotation is John Maine. He’s a real wild card for the Mets. He has the stuff to be as good as any pitcher in the majors, but that is if he stays healthy enough to pitch on a consistent basis. He was sidelined last year over the last five weeks of the season. If he throws over 200 innings this year I see him striking out over 170 hitters and winning at least 17 games. He has too good of stuff to think otherwise and is just coming into his prime.

The Mets resigned Oliver Perez this off-season, and in doing so really solidified their rotation. Behind him is Mike Pelfrey who is another pitcher that has a lot of expectations on his shoulders in 2009. He started slow in 2008 but showed the city of New York that they got something real special there. He throws in the high 90’s and keeps the ball in the park.

Diamond in the rough:

Luis Castillo (2B): Somewhere in New York a sports radio host is wincing while I write this. Castillo has had a great deal of success in the past but just not in New York. I really haven’t seen one player criticized as much as Castillo during the course of one year. I think he bounces back this year and does some real positive things for the Mets at the bottom of their order. Really, if he does anything at all it will be an improvement from 2008 where his speed seemed to vanish and his hitting was awful. A bounce-back year in 2009 is just what the Mets fan don’t expect. I might be crazy for thinking he will have a productive year, but hey only the crazy predictions make you look like a genius later.

Might not live up to expectations:

Francisco Rodriguez (CP): I think he is going to do “all-right” this year, which is an improvement for the Mets bullpen. The thing is that he signed for a big big contract and is coming off a record setting year. Do you have any idea what is going to be expected from him in 2009? A lot. A whole lot. Anything but perfection will lead to some grumblings in Met land. For the love of God, the fans had a march in the off-season in New York to convince their general manager to sign him. Yikes.

Washington Nationals:

2009 looks to be a lot 2008 for the Washington Nationals. They have some talent, just not the kind you would think of from a continually losing team. What I mean by that is the Nationals don’t have a healthy farm system to look towards and say “one day” we’ll be dominate. They have about as much in the minors as they do in the majors, which isn’t too much.

They do have some really interesting ex-can’t miss prospects and slow developing superstars to talk about though. In the ex-can’t miss prospect pile they have Elijah Dukes. This kid is a beast, on and off the field sadly enough. He could hit 20 home runs with his eyes closed, but he just can’t stay on the field. The good thing about him is that he is away from his home town of Tampa Bay and all the problems associated with that town. If he can stay healthy and trouble free he is scary, really scary.

The Nationals also have ex-Mets prospect Lastings Milledge playing center field in 2009.  He’s a speedy young outfielder that the Mets kind got rid of in lieu of their Carlos Beltran signing. He is still incredibly young, but in that I think he is still another few years from being the 20/20 major leaguer he eventually will be. He’s going to steal over 30 bases this year though if he is able to play on a regular basis. He is something to behold, he has lead-off speed but a number five hitters power and rbi potential.

In their slow developing superstars category is Ryan Zimmerman. I feel ignorant saying that he is “slow developing” being that he is 24, but it seems like he’s been around forever. Every year I hear about his potential to be one of the great hitters in the game and every year it just doesn’t happen. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think that it will never happen for him. In fact I think the break-through we’ve all been looking for is right around the corner.

The one true proven player on the Nationals this year is recent free agent sign-ee, Adam Dunn. He’s going to do exactly what he has done every year of his major league career for the Nationals in 2009. He is going to hit around 40 home runs, drive in around 100 runs, bat around .240, and strike out more than any man in the majors. Some people hate it, some people love it, but regardless how you feel about it you know exactly what you’re getting every year from him.  No surprises means no real disappointments.

The starting rotation is where the Nationals are really going to get hurt. They have a second year pitcher as their ace this year. Did I mention that in his rookie year he was 9-15? This second year player is John Lannan. There were some things to be excited about. Like his 3.51 E.R.A. and a relatively good WHIP. It’s just a real sad day for your team when he’s your ace.

Behind him is ex-Marlin Scott Olsen, who had a 2008 season that somewhat resembled Lannan’s. He had good numbers for his age, but just not the numbers you want out of somebody who is your number two pitcher in the rotation. The Nationals rotation reminds me of the 2003 Detroit Tigers who lost 119 games. Their rotation has potential, just not for this specific year. It’s gonna get real ugly in 2009.  I just hope that these pitchers will do the same as the young pitchers on that 2003 Tigers team and use this experience to pitch without expectations and soak in the experience instead of the pounding their going to take.

Diamond in the rough:

Ryan Zimmerman (3B): I’m doing it again, I’m putting my chips on Zimmerman. I think he does it this year. I think he passes the production he had in 2006. You ready? I think he hits 25-28 home runs this year and drives in over 110 rbi’s. He just has too much experience for his young age to not combine that with his strength and talent. I think this is the year where he starts being considered in the same league as the David Wrights of the world. I believe in you Ryan, and I’m sure that will be enough to push you through the hard times.

Might not live up to expectations:

N/A: I don’t know what to say, I can’t pick a player here. There are no expectations for the Nationals this year. There isn’t a player that could put up horrible numbers and surprise anybody. Maybe Adam Dunn, be he isn’t going to. I just don’t know what to do here. No one on this team should really feel any pressure to perform at any kind of accelerated level. I’m sorry but it’s true. The Nationals are a long ways away from becoming anything respectable.

Florida Marlins:

Every year seems to be the same for the Marlins since 2003. Everyone always talks about their great young talent and how they seem to compete when they shouldn’t be. They talk about how this scrappy little team with a pay roll lower than MC Hammer’s entourage and how they somehow keep finding these great young stars. What’s the next logical step after this continual story? It should be the maturation of these young players and the eventual winning breakthrough. It just doesn’t happen because of one undeniable reason. When these youngsters with talent finally ask for the money they deserve, whammo! They are traded or lost to free agency.

I could sit here and name about 20 quality players in the major leagues that used to reside on the Florida bench, but you get the idea. Again this year the Marlins have an amazing array of young talent. They seemed to finally start going in the right direction last yearwith the signing of the best all-round player in the major league, Hanley Ramirez. There is still a long way to go for them, but if they wanted the organization could very easily start with the base they have right now and build for an amazing future.

Like I said Hanley Ramirez is the best player in baseball. I can say that with no hesitation. You could write an entire book about what he does better than about everyone. He can do things that most people can’t. He can steal 40 bases and hit 40 home runs. There aren’t players like that anymore and he’s only 25. If the Marlins go anywhere it will be on his shoulders.

They also have an all-star playing to the left of him as well in Dan Uggla. Can you imagine having two guys in the middle of your infield that both hit over 30 home runs? It’s unheard of. Those aren’t your power positions, or at least they are not supposed to be.

The Marlins are going to lose some power this year with the loss of Mike Jacobs to the Royals. Replacing him at first will be another young player that will probably do well enough for the Marlins to get rid of him later. His name is Gaby Sanchez. He doesn’t have the same kind of power as Jacobs but will strike out a lot less and hit for a better average.

To round out their very potent infield is converted first baseman Jorge Cantu who showed more of his 2005 form by hitting almost 30 home runs and knocking in almost 100 runs in 2008. I’m not sure he has it in him to do it again this year, but if he doesn’t I’m sure some new young player will step into his place and clean-up like always in Florida.

The Marlins are hoping center fielder Cameron Maybin will respond the opportunity of starting this year in center field. He has the ability to be an absolute monster in the majors. He is only 22 and will likely get a good amount of failure dropped on his plate in 2009. It’s just what he has to do to become the player he eventually will become. He’s going to use his speed a lot this year, but won’t have too many opportunities to do so with a probable low batting average in his first full year.

Offensively the Marlins are going to be just fine, it’s the pitching rotations that is really going to hurt them in 2009. Ricky Nolasco will most likely be their opening day starter. He had an unexpected 2008 season in which he posted a 15-8 record and 3.52 E.R.A. He will be expected to repeat that kind of performance this year and add some stability to a relatively inexperienced staff.

Josh Johnson is one of those inexperienced starters in 2009. Even though he is young and has recently had tommy john surgery there is a good possibility he could put up better numbers than anyone imagined. He has the ability, it’s all a matter of his durability and consistency this year. Johnson represents the kind of ability and youth that the rest of the Florida staff presents.

Diamond in the rough:

Cameron Maybin (CF): He could be the most impressive new starter in the 2009 season.  His speed and power put him in a higher class than most center fielders, and he’s 22. He was supposed to get a chance to play last year but it just didn’t happen. This year is a different story. I think he steals around 30 bases this year and hits around 17-18 home runs. He is my official pick for rookie of the year in 2009. Lord knows I’ve been wrong before though.

Might not live up to expectations:

Ricky Nolasco (SP): I do expect Nolasco to have a good season, just not as good as 2008. Some people thrive on being a teams ace, but I don’t think that’ll be the case in 2009. I think he may produce a little less than last year, which isn’t a bad thing by any means, but fans in Florida are expecting a bit more. Last year Nolasco followed up a 1-2 2007 season to win 15 games, there just won’t be that kind of jump this year. I just don’t think it’s fair to put 20 win expectations on such a young pitcher just finding his game. In time he will be a quality pitcher, maybe even a top 20 starter, but just not right now.

Atlanta Braves:

The Braves are a far cry from the continually dominating teams we all became accustomed to a decade ago. They are maybe the least exciting team in a very competitive division. I think they will hover around mediocrity in 2009 and wait for some of their potential farm system superstars to emerge in the coming years.

They do a have a few quality players and talented young players this year. Brian McCann is fast becoming the most reliable young hitting catcher in baseball. He just turned 25 and has already had two years in which his average was over .300. Last year McCann hit 18 home runs in the first half of the season. The amount of games seemed to wear on him in the second half though, as he only hit 5 more after the All-Star break. He needs to work on his endurance in 2009. If he can stay consistent throughout the year his numbers could start to look Piazza like for a lot of years to come.

On the other side of the age spectrum is constant offensive star, Chipper Jones. He had a 2009 season that no one really thought possible. There are a lot of people this year who think it was a fluke and that injuries will dramatically change the output of these next two are three years for Jones. Here’s the problem with that, he has hit over .320 for that last three years.

Jones has upped his physical regiment as his age has increased. Over the next two years his age and physical ability won’t get in the way of Jones using his experience to continue to be an offensive force. I don’t think he is going to hit .364 like last year, but I do think he will be productive. I see him hitting over .300 again this year, hitting about 23-25 home runs, and driving in around 90 runs.

Jeff Francoeur might be the biggest mystery of the 2009 season. He had a steady rise in offensive production over his first three years in the Braves lineup, only to fall on his face in 2008. There was no real reason this should’ve happened, except that maybe because I drafted him last year in fantasy baseball. He has all the physical tools to produce in the majors on a consistent basis, and what he had done before last year pointed that he would. 2008 really just confused everyone. I think this will be a comeback year for him. He has hit for power one year, then hit for a great average the next. He has shown he can do it, he just has to get out of his head and use his natural ability.

The pitching staff looks a lot different than it did in 2008. The Braves acquired two new pitchers in this years off-season to help an ailing rotation. The two new pitchers are veterans Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez. Lowe will be the opening day starter this year, while Vazquez will be the number 2. They both bring a lot of the same things to the table in 2009.

They are both coming off mediocre seasons in 2008 in which they logged a lot of innings for their old teams. They will be expected to use their experience in lieu of their ability that has lessened with age. They will add stability and consistency to the rotation. They know how to pitch and how to create outs. The Braves hope to instill those traits in some of their younger starters.

One of those young starters is Jair Jurrjens. He’s 23 and coming off a rookie season in which he won 13 games, posted a 3.68 E.R.A., and finished third in the rookie of the year voting. He is expected to improve on his numbers this year, which is kind of a tall order. All the ability is at his fingertips, it’s just a matter of controlling his pitches and learning how to get outs instead of just striking everyone out. If he reduces his walk totals from last year he will have a great sophomore campaign.

Diamond in the rough:

Josh Anderson (CF): I don’t necessarily think Anderson is going to put up huge offensive numbers this year, but he is going to do something better than just about anybody in 2009. He is going to steal a lot of bases. He is unbelievably fast. His biggest problem is his on base percentage, but if he can do anything to raise that it’s over for catchers in the National League. If he plays every day he can steal 40 bases without really trying. He is a lot like Willy Taveras, but he still has time to increase his batting average and learn how to use his speed to get on base.

Might not live up to expectations:

Tom Glavine (SP): I never really understood this signing by the Braves. Glavine is going to be 43, he is coming off of season ending surgery, and hasn’t looked good for two straight years.  For some reason though, people expect him to be the Tom Glavine he used to be. I don’t think it’s possible. I don’t know what he has left. I don’t know how he could. I think he pitches in more than 15 games this year before re-injuring his elbow. I hope I’m wrong because I love the way he used to pitch, but I definitely say “used to”.

Philadelphia Phillies:

If I know anything for sure, it is that the Phillies will not do better than they did in 2009. That’s because they won the World Series. Will they do it again?  The scary thing is that they can, and they could be this good for a while. How is that possible? It’s all because of the age of their superstars. Their best pitcher, Cole Hamels, just turned 26. They have the best power hitter in the game in Ryan Howard, and he’s 29. Their fastest player and leading base stealer, Shane Victorino, is 28. They are a team full of players in their prime.

The Phillies offense looks like a fantasy baseball roster. Jimmy Rollins (2007 M.V.P.) leads off for them. Chase Utley bats third and is easily the best hitting second baseman in baseball. Ryan Howard (2006 M.V.P.) bats fourth as the most dominating clean up batter in baseball. Then batting fifth is Raul Ibanez who has hit over 20 home runs and batted in over 100 runs in the last three years. It’s really not all that fair. They really have as good of lineup as anybody. There are a few things that need to happen this year for them to continue their success.

Ryan Howard has to become a more patient hitter. He can’t keep breaking his old records for strike-outs in a season. Also he has to start strong in 2009. Something he did not do at all in 2008.

Chas Utley has to recover well from his surgery in 2008. Without his help in the lineup the Phillies wouldn’t be the same team at all.

Jimmy Rollins has to focus more on his speed stats rather than his power numbers as he begins to see his athleticism decrease. He has to realize he is one a team of power and what they need more of is patience and consistently having runners on base. He has to become what a lead off hitter should be.

Jayson Werth needs to continue his improvement now that he is the everyday centerfielder. He hit over 20 home runs and stole over 20 bases in only 400 at bats last year. If he can build on that he has the opportunity to be a great contributor for the Phillies.

Shane Victorino has to use his speed to get on base. He won the chance to play everyday in 2009 because of that speed and hustle. If his slugging percentage and on base percentage go up again this year he is going to be a real presence at the beginning of their lineup.

The Phillies also have to have the same kind of year from their pitching staff as they did last year. The only real lock to perform as well as last year is in the left arm of Cole Hamels. He showed the world last year what he is capable of. I have thought for a long time that he was going to be dominate, and now I am finally right. He seemed un-hittable at points last year, especially when it really mattered. If he can avoid injury he will put up unbelievable numbers this year, and for years to come.

Now that Brett Myers knows that he will be nothing but a starter in 2009 he should perform much better than in 2008. He spent time in the bullpen, then was expected to be an effective starter within the same season. If he can utilize the abilities he has, 2009 could be a very productive year for him. I think he has the ability to win 17 games or so and post an E.R.A. under 4.00.

Then there is the ageless wonder, Jamie Moyer. The man is 46! Just let that sink in………46. There really isn’t a reason to think he can’t do what he has been doing for the last four years or so, which is to throw in the low 80’s, use control and smarts to win about 13-15 games. It’s just amazing what he does with so little power.

Diamond in the rough:

Jayson Werth (CF):In his first year of being a starter from beginning to end I expect some good things form Werth. He has a great combination of speed, strength, patience. I think he could hit 30 home runs in 2009. With this lineup ahead of him he will have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs, that is if Ryan Howard doesn’t drive them in first. His biggest contribution will be the boost to the bottom half of the lineup. He brings power to the six spot that most teams don’t have the chance to see. If his production is what I think it will be, Pat Burrell’s exit could be something no one is even talking about in Philadelphia this year.

Might not live up to expectations:

Brad Lidge (CP):Lidge had an unbelievable 2008 season. He was unstoppable. I think I’ve seen this before though, and it didn’t turn out so well. Because of what he did last year people in Philadelphia are going to expect the world from him this year. I just don’t see that being a comfortable spot for Lidge. Last year he kind of came out of no where to produce. This year it’s just accepted that he will succeed again. That’s a tough thing to handle sometimes, when there is no room to fail. He is in the most pressure packed position in sports, on a highly successful team, in the cruelest sports town in America. Doesn’t sound great.

Predicitons:

1st: Phillies

2nd: Mets

3rd: Marlins

4th: Braves

5th: Nationals

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